POPULATION EXPLOSION IN INDIA

Small bus or too many people?

In the year 2000 the population of India reached one billion. Starting off with 250,000 inhabitants at the beginning of the century, India is now almost on a par with China, and is the second most populated country in the world. In fact, these two countries are the only ones that have reached this limit, far surpassing the rest.

It is worth mentioning that two thirds of the population growth took place after 1971, reaching a peak between 1961 and 1981, after which the fertility rate gradually diminished. The future of India's population will largely depend on the forecast of the waning fertility rate, together with the success of health and child care programs.

In the next 20 or 25 years, fertility must descend below a rate of 2 in order to lean towards a future demographic stabilization.

If the total fertility rate (TFR), that is, the number of children that a woman gives birth to throughout her life, does not go below 2.1 before 2010 and stays constant, half a billion inhabitants will be added by the middle of the next century. Only if the TFR is under 2 between 2020 and 2025 can stabilization be foreseen for the year 2050.

The present index is estimated at three offspring per woman, and although a slight drop can be noticed, the most populated states -Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh- still have a high fertility rate of three or four children per woman.

The two-child standard has been gaining ground since the beginning of the 90's

More than 70% of married women in the country who already have two children state that they do not wish to have any more, compared with 60% with the same opinion in 1992-93.
The great majority of illiterate women in rural areas do not wish to have more that two children.
As a whole, the notion of the ideal family for women between 20 and 30 lies between two or three children, though more than three are preferred in the states of Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Nagaland.
The social and economic factors which have an incidence on fertility ratios are:
- Preference for a male child.
- Marriage and child-rearing age and segment of schooling age.

The preference for male children is still very strong

One in three women states a preference for having male rather than female children. Only 2% of women are in favor of having daughters instead of sons. This preference results in a higher birth rate, since couples insist on procreating until they have the desired number of male children.

The highest preference for male children is found in Uttar Pradesh, followed by Bijar and Rajasthan. The women from Tamil Nadu express the least preference for having boys, though there are well-known areas (Salem, Madurai) with high percentages in favor (coupled with female infanticide).
This preference seems to have an effect on the 'two-offspring' pattern. Among couples who have two male children, over 80% do not wish to have any more. If, however, they have two female children, the percentage goes down to 47%.

Even though marrying age is increasing, weddings and procreation at an early age are still commonplace

People still marry young in India, with over half of the women marrying before 18, the minimum legal age to do so. Such a premature age usually goes hand in hand with large and less healthy families.
The average age for first-time child-bearing, currently set at 19.6 years of age, has hardly changed in recent years.

Literacy rates are rising

Literacy rates have risen considerably since 1990, particularly among women. Three out of four men can read and write as do approximately half of the women.
In spite of this, women are still very far from attaining suitable academic levels and are far behind men, since their social role is relegated to a secondary position.
Those women who have cultural knowledge can have access to, and interpret, information better. Thus, higher academic standing in women is associated to a low fertility rate.

School attendance is on the rise

The percentage of boys and girls between 11 and 14 who attend school has gone up significantly since 1990. Around 80% of boys and 67% of girls go to school quite regularly.

This increase in attendance has been more noticeable among girls, though they are still lagging far behind boys.

Women have difficult access to the media

Social communication media play an important role in providing information about health and education. These rates have also gone up in the last decades.
For example, the percentage of women who watch television at least once a week has gone from 32% to 46%; despite the increase, only 33% of rural women do so, compared with 80% of city women.
Generally speaking, only 6 of every 10 women have regular access to communication media such as newspapers, magazines, radio, television or films.
The states with higher access to the media are Delhi, Kerala and Goa.
Less than 60% of women from Bihar or Rajasthan have frequent access to the media, followed by Uttar Pradesh and Orissa.

About the NFHS-2 research

The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-2) provides an interpretation profile of the population and health conditions in India. NFHS surveyed over 90,000 women between 1998 and 1999. The first NFHS poll was taken in 1992-93 and provided valuable data about demography and health in the country. The second survey enriched these data by furnishing additional information about new tendencies and newly arisen issues.

The International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS, Mumbai) was in charge of gathering the data for NFHS-1 and NFHS-2. These projects were financed by the United States Agency for Development along with contributions from UNICEF. Technical agencies such as ORC Macro and the East-West Center, as well as 13 data-collecting organizations, have also taken part.

Source: USAIN India - Articles